Key issues in U.S. polling today
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But one thing should be immediately clear: He won perennial swing states like Florida and Ohio. He won Pennsylvania, a state that has attracted the attention of so many Republican presidential candidates over the course of decades only to inevitably vote for their Democratic opponents.
Even the whizzes who elected Barack Obama as President conceded they had it all wrong. If exit polls are to be believed, Clinton lost because her campaign made a fatal miscalculation: The electoral coalition was easy to imagine. But it proved imaginary precisely because those working-class whites—who for decades have been slowly but surely drifting away from a coastal Democratic Party elite they view as economically and culturally out of touch with their needs—found his populist, protectionist rhetoric spoke directly to them.
Hispanic turnout measurably increased. Whether the country can realistically heal its deep political divisions now remains to be seen.
Hillary Clinton so far ahead in polls that she 'doesn't even think about' Donald Trump anymore
Republicans maintained control of the Senate and limited their losses in the House, giving Trump at least a nominally friendly Congress when he takes the oath of office on Jan. The first order of business?
Undoing the major achievements of the Obama administration — or so he has promised. A deep, thoughtful survey can help address this disconnect by presenting the voice of the public on any number of issues.
Here's What Americans Made Of Trump's Meeting With Putin, According To The Polls
In recent decades, fewer people have been responding to telephone surveys. Does that mean poll results are becoming less accurate? We spend a lot of time worrying about declining response rates. But a Pew Research Center report released last month shows that survey participation rates have stabilized over the past several years and that the negative consequences of low response rates for telephone survey accuracy and reliability are limited. To be sure, mobile phones are a factor: Calling a sample of 1, to 1, adults may seem quaint in the new world of big data.
Why even collect survey data when so much information already exists in the digital traces we leave behind as part of our daily lives?
Big data can only tell you so much. So rather than feeling threatened by big data, we see it as a huge opportunity and have made some big investments in learning more.
The future of polling will certainly be shaped by — but probably not replaced by — the big data revolution. What is the future of polling at Pew Research Center?
We were founded by one of the giants of the field — Andy Kohut — and have built much of our reputation on the quality of our telephone polls. But we are also an organization that has never rested on its laurels. We spend a lot of time and money taking a hard look at our methods to make sure they remain accurate and meaningful. I remain confident that telephone surveys still work as a methodology, and the Center will keep using them as a key part of our data collection tool kit. We tap into lots of government databases in the U.
All in all, this is an interesting time to be a social scientist. There are lots of big changes in American politics, global relationships, media and technology.
Our methods will continue to change and evolve in response. At the end of the day, though, our obligation remains the same: